Positive/Neutral

Migration patterns have aided economy

• Groups of Atlantic mackerel have moved far enough north that the Icelandic fleet now shares a major industry with Europe. Prior to this change, it had only caught fish accidentally.
• The pollination of crops globally by bees and other animals alone is worth up to $577 billion.

Contrary to popular belief, not all species have been completely traumatized by the warmer climates

• Some plants have benefited from warmer weather. For example, in California, mountain plants, such as hemlock, are moving downhill toward warmer temperatures, as climate shifts bring more precipitation to once dry valleys.
• In a Colorado region, the blooming period of wildflowers blooms has been extended one month, increasing the amount of time pollination occurs.
• With hotter climates, such as recent >25 degrees Celsius temperatures in Finland, previously rare butterflies have surged in numbers, aiding in pollination of the surrounding flora. These warmer lands are also able to provide for migrating animals and plants. 532 types of wildflowers had bloomed in midwinter in the UK (generally only a few dozen, with 46% of the blooming flora being non-native.

Negative

Proliferation of pests and diseases

• Due to shifting weather patterns, specifically the warming of most climates, many diseases are becoming more prevalent.
• Malaria is now able to appear higher up mountain slopes in Colombia and Ethiopia due to the newly created warmth allowing for mosquitos to thrive at higher altitudes.
• In addition, Leishmaniasis, a tropical disease caused by parasites of the Leishmania type, particularly sandflies, has “migrated” to northern Texas as these insect hosts of the parasite head north.
• Melting permafrost coupled with migrating beavers carrying parasites have contaminated Swedish lakes and streams that were once safe for drinking, such as the Pamvotis Ioannina Lake, with a parasite that causes Giardia, an intestinal illness. Although not currently a major issue in most lakes, this fact could change quickly in the coming years. Climate change is also letting ticks expand their range with the appearance of a 23-fold increase in tick-borne encephalitis in the Komi Republic, west of the Ural Mountains in Russia.

Migration of animals

Roughly 50% of species worldwide are migrating to escape new environment changes, with terrestrial creatures moving more than 10 miles per decade and marine species >4x faster.

• Atlantic cod and Europe's purple emperor butterfly, both moved more than 125 miles in a single decade.
• The red knot, a shorebird that migrates from the tropics to the Arctic each spring to breed and feed on insects, can no longer do so. Melting Arctic conditions are causing insects to hatch weeks before the birds’ arrival. Malnutrition has lead to smaller body sizes and beaks, which further decreases survivability, with certain chicks’ beaks being too small to pluck mollusks from sandy beaches.

EXTREME WEATHER: Unexpected, unusual, unpredictable, severe or unseasonal weather when compared to historical norms

• Hurricanes, floods, possibly tornadoes.
• Heat waves and drought have increased greatly in prevalence, and are both horrible for the surrounding ecosystems An example of drought occurred in 2011, when many locations in Texas and Oklahoma experienced more than 100 days over 100°F
• Heavy rainfall leads to flooding, failing of habitats as well as human levees or dams Worldwide, from 1980 to 2009, floods caused more than 500,000 deaths and affected more than 2.8 billion people. In the United States, floods caused 4,586 deaths from 1959 to 2005 while property and crop damage averaged nearly 8 billion dollars per year from 1981-2011

Invasive species

• Researchers found that non-native species are changing their flowering schedule with the longer growing season. For example, the Purple loosestrife, an European import planted in 19th century for medicinal use, blooms 24 days earlier in Concord than it did a century ago.
• Contrastingly, native species have been, on average, much slower to react The Pennsylvania bittercress, a familiar native plant in Concord, blooms only about a day earlier than it did in the early 1900s.
• Invasive plants already cost the USA ~$30 billion per year in eradication efforts (recovery of affected species and weeding out of invasive species), not to mention the damage to biodiversity and natural habitats. Purple loosestrife, for instance, chokes wetland habitats by crowding out cattails and other marsh plants that serve as food, shelter and nesting material for wildlife.
• Coupled with early blooming, warming weathers causing flowers to bloom earlier, means those plants get a larger share of nutrients, water or pollinators. Not to mention the issues it may have on agriculture (the monies, especially from agriculture-dependant countries like China or the USA)
• It’s like trading one species from another - larger cases could throw entire ecosystems out of whack.

Carbon sinks

• Warming soils are releasing more carbon into the atmosphere, suggesting a disastrous feedback mechanism
• The increased production of carbon comes from the microbes within soils.
• The thawing of permafrost, especially in the Arctic, creates areas of dark water with lesser albedo. This, in turn, increases melting and the release of methane from the permafrost
• Since 1991, when an Arctic experiment began, the areas of land that were warmed by 5C lost ~17% of the carbon that had been stored in the top 60 cm of the soil.
• While deforestation has been the focus of most research into forests’ effects on climate change, with a recent study suggesting tropical forests are turning into carbon sources rather than carbon stores as a result, the impact of warming soils has remained much of a mystery.
• Soils are one of the world’s biggest natural carbon sinks, along with trees and the oceans = also melting permafrost is a big no-no It is estimated that ~1.5 billion tons of carbon dioxide are released to the atmosphere due to deforestation every year, with 30 million acres of trees cut down annually.

Drought and desertification

• Increasing temperatures can disrupt important time-sensitive ecological interactions that many species rely on for survival.
• Increased carbon dioxide levels can also drive ecosystem change, increasing vegetation growth and causing a “greening effect”. This kind of change presents a problem for regions normally devoid of plants being more vulnerable to fires.  For example, one study found that nearly twice as much land area burned in 2015 as in 1984.
• Flora and fauna are becoming endangered due to droughts, which is also an issue for animals - with over 110 countries at risk of desertification, including China, Australia, and Spain.  12 million hectares of land are lost every year Annual land lost could produce 20 million tons of grain. US$42 billion in income is lost every year from desertification and land degradation.

Changing climates

• With the disappearance of Arctic sea ice, ice-dependent animals such as walruses and polar bears lose feeding ground, roaming areas, resting areas, etc. In 2008, the polar bear became the first animal to be added to the Endangered Species Act list of threatened species because of global warming.
  • Normally, musk oxen survive winters by pushing their snouts through snow to find lichen, moss and other plants. Recent studies rain falls, it freezes and forms an icy barrier over the food, which is suspected to be the reason as to why winter rain is starving the musk oxen, with some calves as much as 15% smaller than average size.
• Coral reefs are highly sensitive to small changes in ocean temperatures due to the vulnerability of algae to temperature shifts. When algae are driven away, bleaching occurs, and without surviving coral, home to many other species and fish, the entire ecosystem would be disrupted.
  • Oceans absorb 25% of carbon in the atmosphere every year, with acidification levels rising by 30% since the industrial revolution. A more acidic ocean affects the normal calcium balance, meaning creatures with calcified shells, such as shellfish and coral, may not have enough calcium to grow, dying out.
• Forests are more prone to pest infestations as milder winters and longer summers allow tree-killing insects to thrive. On the other hand, weakened trees due to prolonged drought have lower defense mechanisms - likely the reason for the death of ~70,000 square miles of coniferous trees in the Rocky Mountain.

Combined Consequences on Wildlife

1. Huascaran Biosphere Reserve, Peru
   Situated in the Cordillera Blanca, the highest tropical mountain range in the world, with 27 snow-capped peaks. Between 1970-2003, ~22% of the glaciated area has disappeared. In addition, the smaller, lower-lying glaciers in the reserve are predicted to disappear within a few decades.
   Glaciers on Mount Huascarán lost more than 13 km² of ice and about 40% of area within the past few decades. Complete melting of the glaciers would lead to a decrease in annual dry season discharge of 30% to 60%.

2. Sundarbans, Bangladesh and India
   World’s largest mangrove forests + trees function to sustain and shape their environment.
   Continuous natural subsidence causes sea level rising by ~2.2 mm yearly, and reaching 45 cm worldwide = destruction of 75% of the Sundarbans mangroves
   Endangered species include the estuarine crocodile, Indian python and the Bengal tiger.

3. Iguanas in the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador
   Ecosystems of the islands are high in diversity and endemism, and home to unusual animals including the land iguana and the giant tortoise. Strong El Niño Southern Oscillation (ENSO) events have shaped the living communities of the archipelago over millennia, and climate change makes them more severe (rising temperatures).
   Recent strong events in 1981–82 and 1997–98 resulted in disappearance of cold-water upwelling, which is rich in nutrients = starvation of marine ecosystems
   Decrease in coastal fauna breeding, changes in nesting patterns, and a rise in the mortality rates of birds, reptiles and sea lions